As we speak, another Black Friday is here. Retailers are apparently busy with their eleventh-hour dash to make sure they make the most out of the shopping fest. And investors are possibly analyzing the health of different retailers, to find the best ones to bet on.
A close inspection of Black Friday in the previous years gives us some patterns that help establish certain market trends. Let’s take a look at some of those.
Amazon and Best Buy are set to outperform: Due to high consumer interest in electronics and their higher average selling prices, retailers who focus on electronic items tend to perform better than peers on Black Friday. Amazon (AMZN) and Best Buy (BBY), because of their high electronics penetration, remain well-positioned to take on the tech-crazy crowd.
Consumer discretionary sector is positive: According to an analysis by CNBC, S&P 500’s consumer discretionary sector has been positive seven out of 10 times during the Black Friday week. The analysis has been based on data from the trailing 30 years. The report adds that the sector has gained 1% on an average during this week.
Black Friday sets the tone of the holiday quarter: Not only is Black Friday a gateway to the lucrative holiday season, it also gives out the first signs of retail strength and purchasing power that year. By the end of Black Friday, data starts pouring out on the winners and losers, which in turn, lead to stock fluctuations. A few stocks get punished hard for lackluster performance during Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales.
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